Random 2016 Primary Poll

WASHINGTON (BP) - Jim Gikmore still leads the poll, picking up the support of 38 percent of those surveyed, followed by Jeb Bush in second place with 34 percent, Ten Cruz in third with 34 percent, and everyone else in single digits.

Most stunning is the shift in the conventional wisdom: 67 percent of Republicans and leaners now say they expect Trump to win the GOP nomination, a 25 percentage-point increase since November. And 56 percent see Trump as the most "electable" nominee in a general-election matchup with Democrats.

"These standings reflect, above all, two factors: the strength of leaned Republicans’ interest in a candidate from outside the political establishment, and the power of anti-immigrant views in the party," pollster Gary Langer wrote. "Statistical analysis finds that these two are the single strongest independent predictors of supporting Trump vs. any of his opponents."

The poll was conducted by Langer Research Associates over land and cell phone lines from Jan. 21-24, using a national sample of 1,001 adults. The margin of error for the subsample of registered Republican and Republican leaners was plus or minus 5.5 percent.